I don't put the whole article in, because it's a two-pager, just the parts I was interested in.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13819658/ Laying odds in the Harry Potter dead pool
Will Rowling kill off her young hero? Are Hagrid, Hermione in danger?
By Christopher Bahn
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 3:41 p.m. ET July 19, 2006
A year or more from the final chapter in the Harry Potter series, the boy wizard can still make headlines. Author J.K Rowling recently let slip a particularly juicy piece of news — in the forthcoming book, two major characters will die during the final confrontation with the evil wizard Lord Voldemort — and Harry himself seemed especially likely. This is something that we were discussing when
Half-Blood Prince came out. Just as people were surprised that
Babylon 5 would only go for 5 years even if they had the option for more, I think a lot of people don't buy that JKR would stop writing about Potter. It doesn't matter what else she writes, there would always be a section of people clamoring for more Harry. If he's dead...
It’s not the first time a major character has died. Harry’s grandfatherly mentor, Hogwarts headmaster Albus Dumbledore, was murdered at the end of the most recent book, “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince.” Or was he? It’s clear that more remains to be revealed about what really happened. Did Dumbledore fake his death? Is his apparent killer, Severus Snape, really evil, or a double agent? We have yet to find out. Personally, I'm buying Snape as carrying out Dumbledore's wishes - I have a bad feeling that the potions master is going to do his duty AND die trying. Then again, JKR might let him survive and thrive. But probably not.
Obi-Wan Kenobi of “Star Wars,” another mentor figure, is killed at the end of the first film, but reappears later as an advice-giving spirit. Please God, no. Let Dumbledore rest in peace.
Based on both online fan reaction and the bookmakers’ odds, the smart money seems to be on Harry and Voldemort. She has stated before that the last word of the series is "scar". I wonder if that has changed. I can definitely see an end-scneario where they both die, but JKR really hasn't touched on spells having horrible consequences for the casters.
Harry is another story. Many readers are having difficulty accepting that the hero of the story would die — and worse, one who’s still a boy. It's only tragedy when it happens to someone you care about.
As for offing the main character, there’s plenty of precedent. Sherlock Holmes creator Arthur Conan Doyle got so tired of the detective that that he had Holmes thrown off a cliff — only to be forced to bring him back when Holmes’ popularity raged on unabated. Rowling herself mentions that Agatha Christie killed her sleuth Hercule Poirot so that nobody else could write stories about him. This is the strongest reason, IMO, for Harry to die.
But would Dumbledore have set a plan in motion that required Harry’s death? This is hard to believe — and one explanation for Rowling’s announcement of “a reprieve” for one character is that she thought of a way for Harry to survive. He might - if Harry's death meant many others would be saved.
The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one. It's not just true for Spock. Remember, the only reason Harry is special is because he is the Boy Who Lived. Had he died with his parents, would anyone remember him today?
Harry Potter, our hero.
Doom factor: Fairly high.
Odds of dying: 50 to 1 Possible.
Lord Voldemort, our villain.
Doom factor: Voldemort is too dangerous to live. He’s killed hundreds of people, and is probably too powerful to be imprisoned.
Odds of dying: 1,000 to 1 in favor I would say Voldemort HAS to die. I just don't think she could NOT kill him off.
Severus Snape, former Hogwarts professor, longtime Potter antagonist, and murderer of Dumbledore.
Doom factor: Very high. Nobody knows whose side Snape is really on, and double agents tend to get shot at by both sides.
Odds of dying: 3 to 1 Also the fact that I get the impression that JKR greatly dislikes Snape. If there's any justice, he'll live and be vindicated.
Ronald Weasley and Hermione Granger, Harry’s best friends.
Doom factor: Extremely unlikely. These guys will be telling their grandchildren stories about Harry and Voldemort in 50 years.
Odds of dying: 100 to 1 They should be safe, but there's probably a sizable fangirl segment hoping Hermione bites it.
Neville Longbottom, Harry’s classmate.
Doom factor: Medium. Neville has a growing heroic streak that should put him in the thick of the fight — and in harm’s way.
Odds of dying: 30 to 1 I'm not buying this one. Neville not only gets to survive, he gets to be a hero.
Peter “Wormtail” Pettigrew, betrayer of Harry’s parents who spent years disguised as the Weasley family rat. Now Voldemort’s henchman.
Doom factor: Very high. Lackeys of the Big Bad Villain in any book don’t have long lifespans. Also, there’s a literary analogue: Wormtongue from “Lord of the Rings,” who clearly inspired Pettigrew, backstabbed his boss after one too many insults, and paid the final price.
Odds of dying: 2 to 1 Again, let's hope he bites it.
Ginny Weasley, Harry’s girlfriend and Ron’s sister.
Odds of dying: 75 to 1
Arthur and Molly Weasley, Ron’s parents.
Odds of dying: 60 to 1
Percy Weasley, Ron’s brother, who turned against his family to support the autocratic Ministry of Magic.
Odds of dying: 75 to 1
Bill, Charlie, Fred and George Weasley, Ron’s other older brothers.
Odds of dying: 10 to 1 I think all the Weasleys survive.
Draco Malfoy, Harry’s classmate and chief rival.
Doom factor: Low. Draco is a bully and a jerk, but he’s also just a kid born into a bad family. He’s not even all that evil — ordered to kill Dumbledore, he couldn’t do it. This far into the series, there are several dozen bad guys more dangerous (and, from a dramatic standpoint, deserving of death) than the pitiable Draco.
Odds of dying: 80 to 1 I sort of get the feeling that Draco's going to be getting the same treatment Prince Humperdinck got in
Princess Bride - just wishing he was dead from the embarrassment. Of course, after how she wrote him in the last book, Draco isn't exactly scary, just petty (and yes, I liked him better before).
Alastor “Mad-Eye” Moody, former Hogwarts professor and member of the anti-Voldemort Order of the Phoenix.
Doom factor: Very high. Moody’s a very formidable wizard, but he also seems destined to not die peacefully.
Odds of dying: 3 to 1 All I have to say is, if Mad-Eye goes out, a lot of bad wizards are going with him.
DV
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